Risk analysis of complex and uncertain systems
- نوع فایل : کتاب
- زبان : انگلیسی
- مؤلف : Louis Anthony Cox, jr.
- ناشر : New York : Springer, cop
- چاپ و سال / کشور: 2009
- شابک / ISBN : 9780387890142
Description
Preface.- Goals and challenges for quantitative risk assessment.- Introduction to engineering risk analysis.- Introduction to health risk analysis.- Limitations of risk assessment using risk matrices.- Limitations of quantitative risk assessment using aggregate exposure and risk models.- Identifying nonlinear causal relations in large data sets.- Overcoming preconceptions and confirmation biases using data mining.- Estimating the fraction of disease caused by one component of a complex mixture: bounds for lung cancer.- Bounding resistance risks for penicillin.- Confronting uncertain causal mechanisms -- portfolios of possibilities.- Determining what can be predicted -- identifiability.- Predicting effects of changes: could removing arsenic from tobacco smoke significantly reduce smoker risks of lung cancer.- Simplifying complex dynamic networks: a mathematical model of protease imbalance and COPD dynamic dose-response.- Value of information (VOI) in risk management policies for tracking and testing imported cattle for BSE.- Improving anti-terrorist risk analysis.- Designing resilient telecommunications networks.- References.- Index.
Acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can improve risk management decisions and policies. It illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems.
