Misconceptions of risk
- نوع فایل : کتاب
- زبان : انگلیسی
- مؤلف : T Aven
- ناشر : Chichester, West Sussex, U.K. : Wiley
- چاپ و سال / کشور: 2010
- شابک / ISBN : 9780470683880
Description
Risk is equal to the expected value -- Risk is a probability or probability distribution -- Risk equals a probability distribution quantile (value-at-risk) -- Risk equals uncertainty -- Risk is equal to an event -- Risk equals expected disutility -- Risk is restricted to the case of objective probabilities -- Risk is the same as risk perception -- Risk relates to negative consequences only -- Risk is determined by the historical data -- Risk assessments produce an objective risk picture -- There are large inherent uncertainties in risk analyses -- Model uncertainty should be quantified -- It is meaningful and useful to distinguish between stochastic and epistemic uncertainties -- Bayesian analysis is based on the use of probability models and Bayesian updating -- Sensitivity analysis is a type of uncertainty analysis -- The main objective of risk management is risk reduction -- Decision-making under uncertainty should be based on science (analysis) -- The precautionary principle and risk management cannot be meaningfully integrated -- Conclusions.
"A number of common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessment, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strengths and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk." "All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate students will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest."--BOOK JACKET.
