Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resource systems

List of Contributors page xiii 1 Introduction 1 Janos J. Bogardi and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 2 Integrated regional riskassessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21 4 Adrian V. Gheorghe 2.1 Introduction 4 2.2 Regional safety planning 5 2.3 On some organizational aspects 7 2.4 Techniques for interactive decision processes in IRRASM 8 2.5 The use of DSS for integrated risk assessment studies 8 2.6 The use of GIS technology for IRRASM 13 2.7 The Kovers approach 15 2.8 Conclusions 21 3 Riskanal ysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing 22 V. Klemes¢ 3.1 Introduction 22 3.2 For practical purposes . . . 23 3.3 Climate-change-impact scenarios: From bluffing to metabluffing 24 3.4 In praise of theory and robust results 25 3.5 A reality check 26 3.6 Conclusions, or a tale about unkunks, kunks, and skunks 28 Contents 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar 30 Robert J. Moore 4.1 Introduction 30 4.2 Uncertainty in flood forecasts 30 4.3 Reliability and system complexity 36 4.4 Risk and ensemble forecasting 38 4.5 Conclusion 40 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting 41 Roman Krzysztofowicz 5.1 Introduction 41 5.2 Probabilistic forecasts 42 5.3 Precipitation forecasting system 43 5.4 Stage forecasting system 44 5.5 Flood warning decision system 45 5.6 Closure 45 6 Flood riskmanag ement: Riskcar tography for objective negotiations 47 O. Gilard 6.1 Introduction 47 6.2 Definitions and concepts 47 6.3 “Inondabilité” method 48 6.4 Necessity and consequences of an objective negotiation 52 6.5 Conclusions 53 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia 54 Jonathan F. Thomas and Bryson C. Bates ix x CONTENTS 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed 86 Aregai Tecle and David E. Rupp 11.1 Introduction 86 11.2 Study site characteristics 87 11.3 Model development 88 11.4 Analysis of results 92 11.5 Evaluating risk and reliability in water yield 96 11.6 Summary and conclusions 97 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems 101 Richard M. Vogel, Christopher J. Bell, Ranjith R. Suresh, and Neil M. Fennessey 12.1 Introduction 101 12.2 Model time-step for regional assessment 102 12.3 Development of regional hydroclimatological streamflow model 102 12.4 Storage–reliability–resilience–yield relationships 107 12.5 Sensitivity of water supply system behavior to climate change 107 12.6 Conclusions 109 13 Hydrological riskunder nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input 111 A. Bلrdossy and L. Duckstein 13.1 Introduction 111 13.2 Investigation of historical series 112 13.3 Nonstationary scenarios 113 13.4 Hydrological risks 116 13.5 An example of ecological risk analysis 118 13.6 Conclusions 120 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty 122 Michael J. Bender 14.1 Introduction 122 14.2 Fuzzy compromise approach 123 14.3 Examples 127 14.4 Conclusions 130 7.1 Variability in Australia’s climate and hydrology 54 7.2 Climate change 55 7.3 Urban systems 55 7.4 Irrigation systems 58 7.5 Infrastructure robustness 60 7.6 Conclusions 61 8 Developing an indicator of a community’s disaster risk awareness 62 Norio Okada 8.1 Introduction 62 8.2 The 1994–95 drought 62 8.3 Measuring the “invisibles” of society 62 8.4 A contextual analysis of the drought-related social messages of newspaper articles 64 8.5 Analysis of the observed water saving phenomenon: Another examination of the working hypothesis 65 8.6 Modeling the SPRD–WSP transformational mechanism: An analogy of the water saving action using the “tank” model 66 8.7 Conclusions 69 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation 70 W. Kinzelbach, S. Vassolo, and G.-M. Li 9.1 Introduction 70 9.2 Problems arising in the deterministic determination of capture zones 71 9.3 Determination of a capture zone by Monte Carlo simulation 71 9.4 Results 72 9.5 Conclusions 75 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological riskmodel s 76 Thierry Fahmy, Eric Parent, and Dominique Gatel 10.1 Introduction 76 10.2 A new alert model 76 10.3 Case study description 79 10.4 Results 79 10.5 Discussion 81 10.6 Conclusions 83 CONTENTS xi 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources 133 Ben Chie Yen 15.1 Introduction 133 15.2 Sources of uncertainties 133 15.3 Different measures of uncertainties 134 15.4 Methods for uncertainty analysis 134 15.5 Remarks on uncertainty analysis techniques 138 15.6 Analysis of relative contributions of uncertainties 139 15.7 Concluding remarks 139 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method 143 B. J. Lence and A. Ruszczyn´ski 16.1 Introduction 143 16.2 Elements of a water quality management model 144 16.3 A probabilistic water quality management model 144 16.4 The stochastic branch and bound method 146 16.5 Application of the stochastic branch and bound method for managing BOD discharges in the Willamette River 148 16.6 Conclusions 150 17 Uncertainty in riskanal ysis of water resources systems under climate change 153 Bijaya P. Shrestha 17.1 Three-phase system framework 153 17.2 Risk and uncertainty 153 17.3 Hydrometeorological input and climate change 154 17.4 Modeling and simulation 155 17.5 Analysis of results 155 17.6 Uncertainty of risk analysis 157 17.7 Discussion and conclusions 160 18 Riskand reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice 162 Uri Shamir 18.1 Introduction 162 18.2 The role of forecasting 167 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple riskcriteri a 169 Daniel P. Loucks 19.1 Introduction 169 19.2 Sustainability: Some issues and challenges 169 19.3 Defining sustainability of water resources systems 171 19.4 Measuring sustainability of water resources systems 172 19.5 Final remarks 179 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems 181 H. P. Nachtnebel 20.1 Introduction 181 20.2 Economy-based irreversibility considerations 182 20.3 Physically-based reversibility considerations 184 20.4 Reversibility in environmental management 186 20.5 Summary and conclusions 188 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria 190 Kuniyoshi Takeuchi 21.1 Introduction 190 21.2 Controlling factors of future needs of reservoirs 192 21.3 Reservoir sedimentation 194 21.4 Outlook of reservoirs in the future 195 21.5 Reliable and robust management of reservoirs 196 21.6 Conclusions 197 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems 199 Darko Milutin and Janos J. Bogardi 22.1 Introduction 199 22.2 Case study system 200 xii CONTENTS 23.1 Introduction 209 23.2 The risk management process 211 23.3 Hazard identification 212 23.4 Risk assessment 212 23.5 Risk mitigation 219 23.6 Concluding remarks 219 22.3 Genetic algorithm model 201 22.4 Performance evaluation 203 22.5 Analyses and results 204 22.6 Discussion 206 23 Riskmanag ement for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads 209 Erich J. Plate