Averting catastrophe : strategies for regulating risky technologies

Acid rain, and greenhouse strategy, 109 Agriculture: and pesticide dangers to workers, 179 n.13; and pests, effects of climate on, 107 ; and plant growth, effects of carbon dioxide on, 107 ; and precipitation patterns, possible shift in, 99 ; and water shortages, 113 -114 Air pollution strategy, 109 Air traffic control, 125 ; and crisis decision making, 147 Alkyltins, 31 Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy, 83 Allied Chemical, 20 American Chemical Society, 82 American Physical Society, 63 Analytic approach: in decision theory, 137 , 140 ; examples of, 198 n.8; and expected value approach, limitations of, 137 ; and safety goal, 160 ; in support of strategy, 140 ; and targeted R&D, 168 ; variations in, 198 n.8 Argonne National Lab, 37 , 39 Arrhenius, Svante, 101 Arsenic: accumulation in soils, 16 ; in persistent pesticides, 15 , 20 ; residule levels, 18 -19 Asbestos, 14 ; delayed feedback on, 4 Ascot, England, conference (1978), 72 Atmospheric threats: and inapplicability of typical strategies, 76 ; intervention against, tactics for, 112 -113. See also Climate warming; Fluorocarbons; Fossil fuels; Greenhouse threat; Ozone Atomic Energy Commission, U.S., 52 ; and conflict of interest, 64 ; and earliest reactors, 37 -38, 132 ; and early commercial reactors, 40 -41; flaws in decision-making process, 5 ; and Rasmussen report, 62 ; and remote siting, deemphasis of, 41 -42; and remote test site, 38 ; revised strategy, 43 -44; underlying approach, 45 Attention-cycle, ozone, 94 Ausloos, Peter J., 80 Automobiles, risks of, 154 -155 B Bacteria. See Recombinant DNA research Bans: on fluorocarbon aerosols, 92 ; on rDNA experiments, 66 ; on refrigerant chemicals, 91 . See also Initial precautions Bayport, Texas, 19 Bees, effects of pesticides on, 15 Benzidine-based dyes, 31 Berg, Paul, 58 Bhopal accident, 2 , 14 ; description of, 171 ; as example of egregious risk, 171 -172; and Institute, West Virginia, accident, 172
204
Biological containment. See Containment Biotechnology industry, 57 , 58 Boeing Company, 77 Boston Health Department, 18 Britain, limits of pesticide residues in, 18 -19 Bromine, as ozone depleter, 86 -87 Burden of proof: with government, 181 n.27; legal interpretation of, 180 n.19; with pesticide manufacturer, 21 ; and rDNA research, 128 ; and toxics, 129 ; and TSCA, changes under, 25 . See also Caution, strategy of proceeding with C Califano, Joseph, 64 California Institute of Technology, 81 Callendar, G. S., 101 Canada: and fluorocarbon aerosol ban, 83 ; greenhouse effect in, 99 ; and international controls, lobbying for, 84 Cancer: environmental factors as cause, 6 -7, 24 , 178 n.14; epidemic, potential for, 3 ; and hazardous waste, 2 ; incidence, compared with deaths, 178 n.15; skin, from fluorocarbon aerosols, 1 ; skin, from ozone depletion, 79 ; trends in, 6 -7 "Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming?" (EPA report), 116 Carbaryl, 20 Carbon dioxide, 100 ; absorption by oceans, 97 , 107 ; atmospheric concentrations, historical, 107 ; conservative option, for stabilizing level, 197 n.57; doubling time, NRC projection of, 98 ; emission rates, historical, 97 ; and EPA, 110 , 112 ; and glaciation, 101 ; and human health risks, 107 ; international research, and U.S., 106 ; intervention strategies, potential, 108 -112; and long-range simulation models, 107 ; and NRC, 119 ; NRC assessment mandated by Congress, 106 ; offsetting, tactics for, 112 -113; and plant growth, 107 ; pre-industrial levels, 197 n.55; and priority setting, 106 -108; projected trends, 98 ; and reforestation, reduction by, 112 ; research, expenditures on, 102 ; research, planning of, 101 -102, 106 -107; research, policy relevance of, 106 ; scientific disagreement on, 102 -103; signal, search for, 102 -103, 107 ; sources and sinks, 96 -97; and tax on high-carbon fuel, 110 ; trace gases, effects compared with, 105 . See also Climate, regional; Climate warming; Fossil fuels; Greenhouse threat Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, NRC, 106 Carbon monoxide, in greenhouse threat, 97 , 104 Carbon tetrachloride: as greenhouse gas, 97 ; as ozone depleter, 86 Carson, Rachel, 1 , 16 Catastrophe-aversion system, 7 -9, 11 , 125 , 135 ; and rDNA, 135 , 136 Causal linkages: between trial and error, 145 ; in risk regulation, 199 n.16; unclear, 145 Caution, strategy of proceeding with, 8 -9, 22 , 128 ; and carbon dioxide releases, 197 n.57; and greenhouse case, 129 ; and nuclear regulation, 128 , 185 n.31; and ozone, 95 , 130 ; for ozone regulations, 95 ; in pesticide registration, 22 ; and pesticides, 22 , 129 ; and rDNA, 128 ; redundancy and wide margin for error, 185 n.31; and safeness, adequacy of, 151 . See also Burden of proof; Conservative design Caveats, 11 -13 Chamberlin, T. C., 101 Chemical Abstracts Service, 180 n.21 Chemical industry, 172 Chemical Manufacturers Association, 27 Chemicals, toxic, 9 -10, 119 ; and Chemicals Inventory, 32 ; DDT, accumulations in humans, 19 ; ex-
205
isting substances, priority setting for, 29 -33; existing substances, new uses for, 34 -35; exposures, occupational, 19 -20; exposures, weaknesses in data base, 32 ; factual uncertainties concerning, 159 ; health record of, 5 -7; new, estimated number of, 23 -24, 180 n.21; new, percent dangerous, 23 -24; regulation of, 33 -35; synthetic organic, production rates of, 14 . See also Pesticides; Premanufacture notification system; Toxic Substances Control Act; and under names of specific chemicals China Syndrome, 43 , 51 Chlorine, role in ozone destruction, 79 Chlorobenzene, 32 Clean Air Act, 1977 Amendments, fluorocarbon provision, 83 Climate, global: and ozone depletion, 79 -80; and SST, 1 , 78 . See also Climate warming; Fossil fuels; Greenhouse threat Climate, regional: as greenhouse uncertainty, 103 , 105 ; international variation in, as greenhouse obstacle, 117 ; precipitation patterns, possible shift in, 98 -99; sea level, effects on, 99 -100, 105 . See also Climate warming; Fossil fuels; Greenhouse threat; Polar ice, melting of Climate warming: agricultural pests, effects on, 107 ; and agricultural productivity, 99 ; factors other than carbon dioxide, 102 -103; and fuel tax, 110 ; offsetting, possibility of, 107 , 112 -113; preparation for, 113 -114; rate and magnitude of, 97 -98; trace gases, delayed effect of, 119 -120; trends in, 102 -103; and water conservation research, 107 . See also Carbon dioxide; Fossil fuels; Greenhouse threat Closing Circle, The, 2 Coal, risks from use of, 154 Color Additives Amendment, 22 Coming Dark Age, The, 2 Command-and-control approach, versus auction approach, 92 Commoner, Barry, 2 Comparisons among risks, 161 -163 Complexity. See Decomposition of complex problems Compromise. See Risks, efforts to transcend Congress, U.S.: chemicals discussed by, 23 -24; greenhouse hearings, 102 ; new chemical threats, EPA testimony on, 23 ; and NRC greenhouse advice, request for, 106 ; toxic chemicals, attention to, 20 Conservation Foundation, 101 Conservative design: and early commercial reactors, 41 ; and early submarine reactors, 39 -40; and forgiving of errors, 42 , 51 , 54 ; revised strategy, 44 -45. See also Caution, strategy of proceeding with Containment, 126 ; and early commercial reactors, 40 -41; effectiveness, qualifications on, 187 n.14, 197 n.2; enhancements of, 53 -54, 184 n.20; inapplicability to global atmospheric threats, 76 ; initial use of, 38 ; and maximum credible accident, 42 ; rDNA, biological and physical, 65 , 73 , 123 ; and reactor sizes, 43 , 185 n.27; in revised strategy, 44 ; and Three Mile Island, 52 . See also Initial precautions; Nuclear safety; Prevention Core melts: consequences of, 157 ; and focused R&D, 167 ; and inherent safety, 165 ; and shift to prevention, 157 Costs versus benefits. See Safeness, debate on adequacy of Council on Environmental Quality, 23 ; and carbon dioxide, 100 Crisis decision making, 147 D DDT, 19 ; accumulations in fish and birds, 16 ; curtailment of use, 33 ; and delayed feedback, 4 ; media focus on, 1 ; 1970 levels, 20
206
Decision theory: analytic versus strategic, 137 ; deliberate adjustment of strategy, 139 ; matching strategy to problem, 138 , 139 Decomposition of complex problems, 8 ; in greenhouse research, 115 ; and testing of Molina-Rowland theory, 90 , 189 n.14 Deforestation: and carbon dioxide sink, 97 ; as greenhouse uncertainty, 104 . See also Reforestation Delaney Clause, 128 , 151 ; and caution, 22 ; drawbacks, 22 ; and measurement, 128 , 151 Delayed feedback. See Feedback, delayed Denmark, aerosol fluorocarbon ban, 83 Department of Agriculture, U.S. (USDA), 18 Department of Energy, U.S. (DOE), 102 Depletion estimates: and production growth rates, 93 -94; embedded assumptions, 93 ; variation explained, 89 Dieldrin levels, 19 ; trends in, 180 n.15 Dror, Ezekiel, and decision theory, 137 Dust Bowl, 114 Dyes Environmental Toxicology Organization, 27 E EDB (Ethylenedibromide): as ozone depleter, 86 ; risks of, 159 Egregious risks: and Bhopal accident, 171 ; and adequate safeness question, 163 , 173 ; and environmental groups, 175 ; need to attack, 160 -163; toxic wastes, 172 Ellul, Jacques, 173 -174 Emergency core cooling: in earliest reactors, 39 ; in early commercial reactors, 41 ; revised strategy, 44 -45 Endrin, 16 Energy: alternative, nonfossil sources, 119 ; conservation, as greenhouse strategy, 108 -109; projections, past errors in, 109 ; tax, on high-carbon fuel, 110 -111. See also Carbon dioxide; Fossil fuels Energy Security Act of 1980, 106 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): carbon tax, analysis of, 110 ; and compromise, 165 ; and feedback monitoring, 170 ; fluorocarbon proposal, 92 -93; fluorocarbon regulations, 83 , 91 ; fluorocarbon regulations, economic impact assessment, 82 ; greenhouse report (1983), 116 , 152 , 163 ; and Interagency Testing Committee, 30 -33; and leptophos regulation, 19 ; Office of Toxic Substances, 29 ; ozone background paper (1985), 89 ; pesticide applicators, certification of, 23 ; pesticide registration, blocking of, 22 ; and premanufacture notification, 25 -28; and reforestation option, 112 Error: core melts, 41 , 43 -44, 46 , 52 , 54 ; in energy projections, 109 ; inevitability of, 125 ; lag time prior to emergence, 3 ; minimizing effects of, 122 , 124 , 127 ; in reactor design and operation, 42 ; sources, 46 ; at Three Mile Island, 50 ; triggering events, 47 ; wide margin for, 39 -41, 44 -45. See also Initial precautions; Prevention; Trial and error Error prevention. See Initial precautions; Prevention Errors, forgiving of: nuclear reactors, 22 , 42 , 51 , 54 ; rDNA research, 123 . See also Caution, strategy of proceeding with; Conservative design Ethylenedibromide. See EDB Etzioni, Amitai, and decision theory, 137 European Economic Community (EEC), 84 , 111 Experts, disputes among, 62 , 63 , 64 Exponential depletion, 89 F Factual uncertainties. See Uncertainties, factual Falmouth Conference (1977), 69 Farmers: and pesticide residues, 19
207
Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act, 22 Federal Insecticide Act (1910), 21 Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA): advance testing requirements, 21 ; amendments to, 22 ; burden of proof, 21 ; erring on side of caution in, 22 ; inflexibility, 22 Feedback: bees, effects of pesticides on, 15 ; defined, 15 ; on pesticide residues, 18 -19; insulation from, premanufacture notification system, 34 ; positive, 16 . See also Problem, nature of Feedback, delayed, 3 , 122 ; and accumulation of consequences, 4 ; on asbestos, 4 ; cancer, 7 -8; on DDT, 4 ; fluorocarbon decomposition, 95 ; on lead, 4 ; and slower learning process, 20 ; temperature effect, trace gases, 119 -120; and toxic chemicals, social and political consequences, 24 -25. See also Problem, nature of Feedback, monitoring of: EPA role in, 170 ; NRC greenhouse report recommendations, 107 ; for pesticides, 21 ; in rDNA case, 72 , 73 . See also Learning from experience Fertilizers, nitrogenous: depletion estimates, 84 ; obstacles to regulation, 94 ; offsetting effects, 84 ; and ozone depletion, 84 -85; usage rates as nonscientific issue, 97 -98; use of, projected trends in, 85 Flooding, 99 , 100 , 105 Florida, possible flooding of, 99 Fluorocarbons, 23 , 78 -84; characteristics and chemical substitutes, 79 ; chemical reaction depicted, 189 n.9; EEC manufacturing limits, 84 , 111 ; and federal task force (1975), 82 ; as greenhouse gas, 97 , 104 -105; and industry interest groups, 81 , 83 ; international treaty (1985), 84 ; and ozone attention-cycle, 94 ; production trends, post-1983, 89 , 105 ; relative dispensability of, 96 ; U.S. usage, 95 ; usage rates as nonscientific issue, 97 -98. See also Fluorocarbons, aerosol; Fluorocarbons, nonaerosol; Ozone Fluorocarbons, aerosol, 78 , 79 ; alarm over, in 1974, 4 ; ban of, 124 , 130 ; government regulations on, 82 -84; and political judgments, 81 ; regulations, exemptions in, 83 ; regulatory strategy, two-step, 92 ; testing of risks, 80 Fluorocarbons, nonaerosol: and bromine threat, 86 ; for fire extinguishers, 86 ; for foam-blowing industry, 93 ; and industry lobby, 83 ; for refrigerators and air conditioners, 78 -79; regulatory proposal, 82 -83, 192 n.45 Fluorocarbon theory. See Molina-Rowland theory Food and Drug Administration, 21 Food and Drugs Act of 1906, 18 , 21 Food, Drugs, and Cosmetic Act (1938), 21 Ford Motor Company, greenhouse research, 101 Forgiving of errors. See Errors, forgiving of Fossil fuels, 101 , 103 ; ban on high-carbon, 111 ; centrality to contemporary life, 96 ; conservation, as greenhouse strategy, 108 -110; consumption rates, 98 ; energy forecasts, 109 ; growth rates as nonscientific issue, 97 -98; nuclear power as alternative to, 2 ; taxes on, projected effects of, 110 ; variations in carbon content, 97 . See also Carbon dioxide; Climate warming; Greenhouse threat Funding, as research stimulus, 91 G General Accounting Office, U.S.: and PMN system, 28 ; and voluntary testing, 33 Germany: and priority setting for chemicals, 30 ; carbon dioxide research workshops, 102 Global Atmospheric Research Program (Programme): Joint Organizing Committee, 102 ; U. S. Committee for the, 102
208
Gordon Conference (1973), 58 Greenhouse threat, 10 -11, 96 -120; absence of precautions for, 116 -117; analysis in support of strategy, 140 ; basic questions about, 96 ; clouds, possible offsetting effects of, 103 ; congressional hearings on, 102 ; early descriptions, 100 -101; and deforestation/reforestation, 104 ; and energy policy, 108 -109; factual uncertainties, 120 ; irreversibility, 119 ; mitigation of effects, 113 -114, 115 ; nature of the problem, 96 ; NRC study (1983), 106 -108, 119 ; need for more focused R&D, 106 ; offsetting, possibility of, 113 ; and ozone depletion, 87 ; partial solutions, 118 ; possible effects, 98 -100; prevention strategies, 111 -113; research, U.S. government leadership in, 102 ; research-and-monitoring strategy, 114 , 115 -116; scientific research on, pre-1975, 101 -102; sources of, 96 , 97 -98; strategies, 100 -106, 108 -114; strategies, appraised, 96 , 114 -120; trace gases, 97 , 104 -105, 111 ; worst-case scenario, 100 . See also Carbon dioxide; Climate, regional; Climate warming; Fossil fuels; Polar ice, melting of Greenland ice sheet, 105 Guidelines, rDNA research: initial, 59 , 123 ; and local regulation, 61 ; and private industry, 186 n.2; revision and relaxation, 61 , 123 , 136 . See also Recombinant DNA research H Harrison, Dr. Halstead, 77 Harvard Energy Policy Project, 109 Hazardous waste, 161 ; dumps, and coastal flooding, 114 ; as egregious risk, 172 ; environmental alarms concerning, 2 Health and safety: and cancer, 6 -7; carbon dioxide risks, 107 ; in nuclear power, 5 , 178 n.11; pesticides, 6 , 180 n.15; for rDNA, 7 ; and small exposures, 180 n.15; for toxic chemicals, 5 -6; trends in, 5 -7 Highway safety, compared with nuclear safety, 162 Hopewell, Virginia, 19 House of Representatives, U.S.: Commerce Committee, 1975 fluorocarbon hearings by, 83 ; Science and Technology Committee, fluorocarbon hearings by, 83 "How safe is safe enough?" debate. See Safeness, debate on adequacy of Hubbard, Ruth, 60 Hydrochloric acid, 81 I Ice sheets, melting of. See Polar ice Idaho Falls, reactor test site near, 38 , 132 Improved learning from experience, 168 ; disincentives for, 169 ; and energy parks, 201 n.19; EPA role in, 170 ; and feedback monitoring, 168 , 170 ; and nuclear industry, French, 170 ; and nuclear industry, structure of, 169 -170; in submarine reactor program, 183 n.11; and Three Mile Island, 168 ; and toxics, 170 . See also Learning from experience Industry: Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy, 83 ; and fluorocarbon regulations, 81 Inherently safe reactors, 164 -165 Initial precautions, 8 , 125 ; and atmospheric threats, 76 ; and catastrophe-aversion system, 135 ; greenhouse, 124 , 127 ; nuclear, 122 , 126 -127; rDNA, 72 , 126 , 136 . See also Caution, strategy of proceeding with Insecticides. See pesticides Institute, West Virginia, accident, 172 Interagency Testing Committee, 30 -33, 133 , 134 ; budget and composition of, 30 ; and classes of chemicals, difficulties in testing, 31 ; and exposures to chemicals, data on,
209
32 ; factors considered, 30 -31; and priority setting, 30 ; problems to date, 31 -33; reports for 1977-86, 31 ; structure and mechanics of, 30 -31 Interest groups: apple shippers, 18 ; fluorocarbon producers, 83 ; and fluorocarbon regulations, 81 ; and newer ozone threats, 94 ; and regulatory errors, 20 International action: in fluorocarbon case, 95 ; in ozone case, 94 -95, 124 ; versus unilateral action, 95 International Apple Shippers Association, 18 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 109 Iodide pills, 53 -54 Irreversibility: and atmospheric threats, 76 ; difficulty of environmental problems, 4 ; in greenhouse case, 119 -120 J Janis, Irving, and decision theory, 147 Japan, priority setting by trial and error, 30 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and fluorocarbon testing, 81 Johnston, Harold S., 78 K Kemeny Commission, 51 , 52 , 53 ; and core melts, 167 Kennedy, Sen. Edward, 60 , 64 Kepone, 20 , 24 Knolls Atomic Power Lab (KAPL), 38 , 39 L Lag time. See Feedback, delayed LaPorte, Todd R., 125 , 145 Lead: delayed feedback on, 4 ; in TSCA deliberations, 24 Lead arsenate, 16 Learning from experience, 9 , 130 ; and catastrophe-aversion system, 138 ; and decision theory, 138 ; and NRC, 168 ; and NRC safety goal, 156 ; and nuclear power, 132 ; on pesticides, 15 -21; of pest resistance, 17 ; and rDNA research, 72 -73, 133 , 136 ; research stimulated by error, 17 ; and Three Mile Island, 132 ; and toxics, 133 ; and trial and error, 130 . See also Improved learning from experience Legal issues: burden of proof, for pesticides, 180 n.19; chemicals regulation, 34 Leptophos, 19 Lindblom, Charles E., and decision theory, 137 , 139 London Purple, 15 Louisiana, and greenhouse flooding, 99 Love Canal, 14 ; and atmospheric threats, compared, 76 ; early alarm, 1 -2 M Malathion, 20 Manhattan Project, 37 Mann, Leon, 147 March, James, 137 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. See Study of Critical Environmental Problems Maximum credible accident, 40 , 42 , 45 , 128 Media: on Bayport, Texas, pesticide plant, 19 ; greenhouse reports, 115 ; on ozone attention cycle, 94 ; rDNA coverage, 60 ; on spray residues, 18 ; on toxic chemicals, 20 Mercury, 24 Methane: as greenhouse gas, 97 , 104 ; and ozone depletion, 86 ; releases from continental slopes, 107 ; sources, 86 Methylbromide, 86 Methylchloroform: as greenhouse gas, 97 ; sources and rates, 86 Middle East, 99 Mitigation of consequences: and atmospheric threats, 76 ; on greenhouse effect, 113 -114; nuclear, iodide pills for, 53 -54 Molina, Mario J., 78 . See also Fluorocarbons; Molina-Rowland theory; Ozone
210
Molina-Rowland theory; confirmation, 80 -82; decomposition into testable components, 90 ; depletion sequence, hypothesized, 79 ; and hydrochloric acid, 81 ; and testability of risks, 80 Monitoring feedback, See Feedback, monitoring of Mumford, Lewis, 3 , 173 -174 Mutagenicity, 131 N National Academy of Sciences. See National Research Council National Bureau of Standards, 80 National Institutes of Health (NIH), 123 ; and rDNA regulation, 58 , 64 , 66 , 68 National Occupational Health Survey (NOHS), 32 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 80 National Research Council: and carbon dioxide, doubling time projected, 98 ; Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, 106 ; fluorocarbon reports by, 82 , 91 ; and focused R&D, 166 ; greenhouse report (1983), 106 -108, 152 , 163 ; on greenhouse threat, 98 , 119 ; meeting of, March 1977, 61 ; methylchloroform report (1979), 86 ; nitrogen oxides report (1983), 106 -108, 152 , 163 ; and ozone estimates, assumptions in, 93 ; ozone report (1983-84), 88 -89; and policy makers, synthesis of science for, 90 ; and priority setting, lack of, 106 -108, 117 -118; rDNA risks, committee on, 58 ; reports by, role of, 116 ; on trace gases, 104 , 105 Natural Resources Defense Council, 165 ; and EPA backlog of ITC recommendations, 32 ; fluorocarbon litigation (1984-85), 89 ; on voluntary testing, 33 Nature , 79 New Jersey, 99 New York Times , SST controversy, 78 Nitrites, 129 Nitrogen oxides, sources, 84 Nitrogenous fertilizers. See Fertilizers, nitrogenous Nitrous oxide, as greenhouse gas, 97 , 104 Nonfossil fuels, as greenhouse strategy, 108 -109, 119 Norway, and aerosol fluorocarbon ban, 83 -84 Nuclear safety, 10 , 119 ; adequacy, question of, 47 , 54 , 55 , 73 ; advanced testing strategy in, 36 ; analysis in support of strategy, 140 ; Argonne National Lab, 37 , 39 ; China syndrome, 43 , 51 ; and chemical hazards, compared, 36 , 55 ; containment, increasing sophistication of, 184 n.20; containment strategy, 38 , 40 , 41 , 43 -44, 184 n.23; core catchers, 43 , 53 ; cost increases, 47 ; decay heat problem, 184 n.23; emergency core cooling, 39 , 41 , 44 -45; emergency evacuation, 53 , 54 ; error, wide margin for, 39 -41, 44 -45, 185 n.31; health and safety record, 5 , 178 n.11; Idaho Falls test site, 38 , 132 ; inherent, 164 -165; and iodide pills, 53 , 54 ; and Kemeny Commission, 51 , 52 , 53 ; Knolls Atomic Power Lab, 38 , 39 ; Manhattan Project, 37 ; maximum credible accident, 40 , 42 , 45 ; open-ended regulatory process, 47 ; pressurized water reactors, 48 , 49 ; prevention strategy, 42 , 44 -45; prevention strategy, and Three Mile Island, 52 , 53 ; priority setting in, 56 ; and rDNA, compared, 65 , 74 ; Reactor Safeguards Committee, 37 , 38 , 39 ; reactor sizes, 43 ; redundancy as tactic in, 39 , 40 , 41 , 44 , 45 ; remote siting as tactic in, 37 , 41 , 53 , 54 ; sabotage, potential for, 39 ; submarine reactors, 39 , 40 ; and Three Mile Island, 48 -51, 52 , 53 , 54 , 63 ; trial and error in, 36 , 55 . See also Atomic Energy Commission, U.S.; Caution, strategy of proceeding with; Conservative design;
211
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, U.S.: containment measures, 53 ; learning from experience, 168 , 183 n.11; open-ended regulation, 47 ; priority setting, 134 -135; probabilistic risk assessment, 141 ; public perceptions of, 2 ; Rasmussen report, 62 , 63 ; and rDNA regulation, compared, 57 , 60 ; safety goal, 153 ; and Three Mile Island accident, reviews of, 53 O Office of Science and Technology, White House, 22 Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP): carbon dioxide advice for Congress, 106 ; carbon dioxide research expenditures, 102 Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress: and premanufacture notification system, 28 ; and rDNA research, 68 100,000,000 Guinea Pigs, 21 Organophosphate pesticides, 20 Ozone: 10 ; and aerosol propellants, 78 ; alarm over, in 1974, 4 ; and climate, 79 ; depletion, procedures for confirming theory of, 80 ; depletion estimates, 77 , 78 ; depletion estimates, changes in (1974-84), 88 ; estimates, political-economic factors in, 89 ; formation, 77 ; first scientific warnings, 77 , 90 -91; in TSCA deliberations, 23 ; increase, possibility of, 88 ; levels, natural fluctuation of, 81 ; market-like policy, proposal of, 92 -93; models, 87 -88; monitoring and debate, 92 -93; political constituencies for newer threats, 94 ; production of, partial depletion offset by, 87 ; and refrigerators and air conditioners, 78 ; regulatory strategy, elements of, 89 -93; regulatory strategy, rationale, 92 ; regulatory strategy, shortcomings, 93 -95; revised estimates, 87 -89; stratosphere, defined, 188 n.1 P Paris Green, 15 , 33 Partial solutions, and greenhouse problem, 118 , 163 -164 Partial strategies, 111 PCBs, in TSCA, 24 Pesticide Chemicals Amendment (1954), 22 Pesticide legislation and regulation: certification of applicators, EPA, 23 ; Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act, 22 ; Federal Insecticide Act (1910), 21 ; indemnity payments to manufacturers, 23 ; Pesticide Chemicals Amendment, 22 ; residues, strategy for, 109 ; world tolerances, 18 -19. See also Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act Pesticides, 15 -21; and alternative control methods, 17 ; carbamates, 20 ; carbaryl, 20 ; current levels, 20 ; DDT, 1 , 4 , 16 , 19 ; dieldrin, 17 , 180 n.15; endrin, 16 ; lead arsenate, 15 ; learning process, and delayed feedback, 20 ; less persistent, 17 , 19 ; Malathion, 20 ; organophosphate, 20 ; Paris Green, 33 ; and pest resistance, 17 ; residues, 18 -19; and worker health problems, 19 , 179 n.13 PIUS reactor, 164 Planning, urban and regional, 114 Polar ice, melting of, 99 -100; geological evidence for, versus climate modeling, 195 n.32; scientific dissent on, 99 Premanufacture notification (PMN) system, 24 -29, 122 ; actions by, 29 ; and commercial production of chemicals, 26 , 181 n.30; confidentiality in, 28 ; detailed reviews, percentage of, 28 -29; and EPA, 25 -28; exemptions to, 27 -28; evaluation of effectiveness, 28 -29; and insulation from feedback, 34 ; mechanics, 25 -28; OTA on, 28 ; and priority setting, 28 ; requirements,
212
24 ; and significant new uses for chemicals, 35 ; staff and budget, adequacy, 26 -27; voluntary agreements with industry, 29 . See also Chemicals, toxic; Toxic Substances Control Act President's Science Advisory Committee (PSAC), and ice cap melting, 101 Prevention, 8 ; and containment, deemphasis of, 44 -45, 185 n.27; versus containment, nuclear, 45 , 46 ; versus containment, rDNA, 66 ; in reactor safety, 42 , 44 ; and Three Mile Island accident, 52 , 53 . See also Initial precautions; Nuclear safety Priority setting, 9 ; and core melt research, 167 ; on critical uncertainties, 166 ; and existing chemicals, ITC scrutiny of, 29 -33; focused R&D, 166 -167; and greenhouse research, 102 , 106 -108, 117 -118, 134 , 166 ; ITC success, limitations on, 34 ; in nuclear regulation, weaknesses, 56 , 134 ; for ozone issues, 93 -94; and policy makers, 106 , 108 ; and rDNA research, 134 , 166 ; in regulatory science, 199 n.12; and toxic chemicals, 15 , 122 , 134 ; among trace gases, 108 ; and warning signals, 167 Probabilistic risk assessment: and nuclear power, 140 ; and Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 141 ; and verifying NRC safety goal, 156 , 157 Problem, nature of: and bearable errors, 140 ; and feedback, available, 140 ; and feedback, delayed, 144 (see also Feedback, delayed); and feedback, problematic, with severe consequences, 146 ; and feedback, unclear, 145 ; environmental, difficult characteristics of, 3 -4; greenhouse hazard, global character of, 96 , 123 ; and institutional settings, various, 199 n.13; matrix of types, 142 , 148 ; "normal," 143 ; nuclear versus chemical hazards, 36 , 55 ; nuclear versus rDNA hazards, 65 , 74 ; number of aspects to monitor, 4 ; ozone hazard, character of, 76 , 123 ; rDNA hazard, character of, 135 ; regional variation, greenhouse, 117 ; risky technologies, 141 ; in social policy arenas, 145 ; and social science, 149 ; and trial and error, 142 , 143 , 148 Production ceilings for chemicals, 92 Public controversy: and citizens' perceptions, 2 ; on ethical questions, 75 ; and greenhouse case, 152 ; and inherently safe reactors, 164 ; and NRC safety goal, 158 ; nuclear versus rDNA, 74 ; and rDNA, 57 ; and rDNA, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, 59 ; and rDNA, public interest groups, 60 , 63 Q Quasi-experiments, 146 R Radioactive waste disposal, 161 Rasmussen report, 62 , 63 Reactor Safeguards Committee, 37 , 38 , 39 Recombinant DNA Advisory Committee (RAC): established, 59 ; public representation on, 64 ; workshops, 68 ; and worst-case experiments, 70 Recombinant DNA (rDNA) research, 10 ; analysis in support of strategy, 140 ; Ascot, England, conference (1978), 72 ; Paul Berg, proposal for, 58 ; biological containment, effectiveness, 187 n.14; biotechnology industry, 57 , 58 ; Joseph Califano, ruling by, 64 ; congressional proposals, 60 , 61 , 64 , 74 ; dangers, 188 n.23; disputes among experts, 62 , 63 , 64 ; early alarm over, 1 ; ethical issues, 75 ; facts constraining public debate, 75 ; Falmouth Conference (1977), 69 ; Gordon Conference, 58 ; guidelines, 59 , 61 ; initial precautions, 72 ; media coverage, 60 ; monitoring experience, 72 , 73 ; and National Academy of Sci-
213
ences, 58 , 61 ; National Institutes of Health, regulations by, 58 , 64 , 66 , 68 ; and nuclear research, compared, 72 ; physical and biological containment, 65 , 73 ; prevention versus containment, 66 ; prohibition of risky experiments, 66 ; public controversy, 57 , 59 , 60 , 63 , 74 , 75 ; Recombinant DNA Advisory Committee, 59 , 64 , 68 , 70 ; safety record, 7 ; shotgun experiments, 70 ; state and local controversies, 57 , 59 -60, 61 , 74 ; types of risk, 67 -70; voluntary compliance, non-NIH projects, 186 n.2; worst-case experiments, 70 , 71 . See also Guidelines, rDNA research; Caution, strategy of proceeding with Redundancies. See Conservative design; Caution, strategy of proceeding with Reforestation, as greenhouse tactic, 112 Remote siting: earliest reactors, 37 , 39 ; early commercial reactors, 41 ; revisions, after Three Mile Island, 53 -54. See also Initial precautions Research and development (R&D): seawalls, 114 . See also Priority setting; Testing uncertainties about risks; and under names of specific threats Reuss, Rep. Henry S., 77 Risks: from coal use, 154 ; comparisons among, 154 , 161 -163; of driving, 154 , 155 ; high probability, low consequence, 154 ; low probability, high consequence, 154 , 156 ; Mideast war and oil supply, 154 ; in rDNA research, 67 , 68 , 69 , 70 ; society's management of, 160 . See also Egregious risks; Risks, efforts to transcend; and under names of specific risks Risks, efforts to transcend, 163 -166: compromise as decision strategy, 165 ; in greenhouse case, 108 -109; nuclear, inherent safety concept, 164 Risks versus benefits. See Safeness, debate on adequacy of Roszak, Theodore, 2 Rowland, F. Sherwood, 78 . See also Fluorocarbons; Molina-Rowland theory; Ozone S Saccharin, 129 Safeness, debate on adequacy of, 11 , 130 ; versus catastrophe aversion, 153 ; and caution in proceeding, 151 ; versus egregious risks, attack on, 163 , 173 ; and greenhouse threat, 114 , 117 , 119 -120, 152 ; and international variations, 117 ; for nuclear power, 47 , 55 , 74 , 151 , 164 , 165 ; for nuclear power, after Three Mile Island, 54 ; for ozone, 95 ; for toxic chemicals, 151 Safety. See Health and safety; Nuclear safety; Safeness, debate on adequacy of; Safety goal Safety goal, 153 -158; and acceptable risks, problems defining, 153 -155; and analytic approach, 158 ; meeting of, impossibility of verifying, 155 -158; and NRC, 155 Schmeltekopf, Arthur L., 80 Schweitzer, Albert, 174 Science, ozone analyses, 78 Science: competing subgroups, role of, 116 ; excessive reliance on, 93 ; nonscientific components in projections, 97 -98; overemphasis on, in premanufacture notification system, 34 Science for the People, 60 Scien