Risk and precaution

adaptation, 3, 49, 96, 100, 107, 140, 144–145, 149, 154–155, 157, 159–160, 162–164, 169, 184, 190–191, 206–207, 209, 211, 218–219, 221–225, 228, 237, 249 adaptive management, 75, 158–160, 162–164, 167, 169–170, 172, 183, 187, 189–190, 215, 222–224, 232–233, 237, 248–249 American Trucking Associations, 126, 133 asbestos, 3–4, 7–8, 17, 79, 106, 117, 126, 138, 142, 161, 185, 211–212, 243 AT&T Wireless, 126–127, 132–133 availability heuristic, 90, 128 benefit–cost analysis, 13, 25, 46–50, 56–57, 60, 110, 173, 186 benefit–cost test, 47–48 Berra, Y., 55 biodiversity, 148–149 biotechnology, 4, 7, 170 Bohr, N., 55 burden of proof, 9, 11, 13, 16, 24, 88, 93, 95 Bureau of Land Management, 235 business-as-usual, 8, 15, 41, 45, 91, 106–107, 115, 133, 135–136, 139, 141–142, 156–157, 162, 164, 179, 206, 208, 215, 224–226, 228, 233–234 Byerlee D., 57 C8, 129, 168, 228 cancer, 4, 11–13, 21–22, 79, 139 Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, 9 Cellular Telephone, 126–127, 133 Clean Air Act, 12 Clean Water Act, 12 climate change, 3–4, 6, 37, 112, 130, 137, 139–140, 156, 158, 160, 171, 180, 223, 236, 238, 243 complex adaptive systems, 65–67 complex systems, 5, 26, 35, 37, 56, 60, 64–67, 69–70, 73–79, 83, 104–105, 110, 120, 150, 157, 163, 168, 170, 182, 186, 188, 202, 236, 245, 248 complexity theory, 35, 73, 80 Convention on Biodiversity, 13 cost effectiveness, 101, 168, 205–207, 217, 221, 224, 236, 248, 250 coupled human and natural systems, 68 damage dilemma, 161 Daubert, 125–126, 131, 133 DDT, 20 Department of the Interior, 226, 229–230, 234 discounting, 47, 238 Dupuit, J., 46 early warning, 7–8, 70, 106, 132, 143, 157–158, 162–164, 169, 172, 183–184, 187, 189–190, 206–207, 215, 222–225, 230, 232–233, 237, 248–249 Ehrlich, P. and A., 40, 52 emergence, 64–67, 69, 73 endangered species, 9, 156, 175, 229–230, 234–235, 239 Endangered Species Act, 229–230 endocrine disruptors, 21, 229, 239 entropy, 57–59, 71–72 Environmental Protection Agency, 43, 53, 79, 95, 126, 133, 138, 142, 170, 209–210, 213–214, 223, 226–229, 234, 249 ETR framework, 108–109, 173, 185–186, 246 evidentiary standards, 88, 91, 95–96, 100, 126, 189 expected utility, 39–40, 49, 51–52, 56, 61, 76, 86, 92, 168, 171, 173, 175, 177–178, 181, 203, 218, 236, 244, 248 expected value, 5–6, 32, 36, 39–40, 49–50, 60–61, 92, 104, 110–111, 130, 146, 151, 161, 168, 171, 173, 181–182, 203–204, 217–218, 236–237, 248 false balance, 131 familiarity bias, 127 fat tail, 77 Food and Drug Administration, 10, 91, 95, 117, 137, 140, 142, 150–153, 155, 169–170, 190–191, 205, 209–210, 213, 220, 225–226, 234, 243–244, 249–250 Food Quality Protection Act, 238 food safety and human health, 148 Forest Service, 235 Framework Convention on Climate Change, 9 French Committee on Precaution, 121 genetically modified organism, 107, 134, 137, 147, 149–150, 169–170, 190–191, 210, 219 global warming, 11–12, 19, 51, 62, 72, 201 grand unified moral theory, 199 greenhouse gas, 4, 51, 72, 137, 140, 160, 162 gross ignorance, 5, 26, 34–35, 49–50, 56, 64, 68, 103–104, 107, 123, 145, 164, 185, 202, 211, 218 Hicks, J., 47 Hippocratic Oath, 7, 38–40, 92, 136, 151 hysteresis, 67 insurance, 5–6, 36–37, 49, 52–53, 55, 62, 128, 130, 134, 156, 173, 182, 213 integrated risk management, 15, 26–27, 195, 217–218, 225, 228–229, 233–238, 244, 247–250 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 223 International Council for Exploration of the Seas, 232 International Union for the Conservation of Nature, 230 invasive species, 210 involuntary exposure, 119, 209 irreversibility, 50, 56–60, 70–71, 80, 103, 121, 161, 173, 177, 183, 251, 253–254 junk science, 130–131, 133 Kaldor, 47 Knight, F., 32–36, 46, 49–50, 63, 103–104, 123, 185, 217 Krutilla, J., 57–59 Kumho Tire, 125–126, 131, 133 law of large numbers, 6, 36–37, 49, 52, 56, 61–62, 128, 130, 151, 168, 173, 182, 186 Lead Industry Association, 125 loss aversion, 90, 127–128 lottery, 32–33, 49, 51, 61, 83, 110, 176, 181 Manhattan Project, 147 manufacturing uncertainty, 130–131, 201 Martin, R., 80 maximum sustainable yield, 231 mesothelioma, 4 Mitchell, J., 57 mitigation, 3, 51, 53, 78, 107, 120, 140, 143, 145, 149, 154–155, 157, 159–160, 162–164, 169, 184, 190–191, 206–207, 209, 211, 218–219, 221–225, 228, 237, 249 mobile phone, 22, 28, 126 modeling, 44, 60, 70–71, 73–75, 148, 156–157, 163, 185, 236, 246, 248, 256 Modest Mouse, 33 monitoring, 73–76, 143–144, 214–215, 219, 222–225, 227, 229–230, 233, 238 Montreal Protocol, 9 moral intuitions, 97, 101, 195–197, 199, 203–204 moral principles, 97, 195, 197, 199–200, 202 MTBE, 75, 117, 129, 133, 137–139, 142, 168, 185, 210, 212, 228, 243 muddying the waters, 130–131 nanotechnology, 4, 7, 212–214, 238 North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization, 232 North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission, 232 north Pacific salmon, 139, 157, 185, 230 novel intervention, 8, 17, 27, 38, 46, 75, 106, 117, 134, 136–137, 140, 142, 144–145, 153, 155, 162–163, 165, 168–169, 172, 184, 209, 211–212, 214, 222, 225–226, 236, 247–249 ex ante, 136–137, 142, 155, 158, 162–164, 167–168, 172, 184, 187, 189–190, 209, 213, 218, 220–221, 225, 234 ex post, 137, 139, 155, 161–164, 167–169, 172, 184–185, 187, 189–190, 209, 214–215, 221–223, 225, 234, 237 novelty, 38–41, 63, 74, 120, 146, 219 nuclear waste, 3–4, 7–8, 154–155 null hypothesis, 5, 93–96, 163 optimal sustainable yield, 231–232 option price, 50, 57 option value, 50, 57–58, 108, 142–143, 173, 177–178 Pareto, V., 46, 178, 197–198 Pascal’s wager, 60 path dependence, 39, 59–60, 63, 67, 70–72, 80, 103, 163, 202, 236, 248 polychlorinated biphenols (PCBs), 3–4, 7–8, 17, 75, 106, 117, 129, 138, 142, 161, 168, 185, 210–212, 228, 243 post-release surveillance, 27, 152, 169, 172, 187, 189–191, 205–207, 219–222, 228–229, 234, 247, 249–250 pragmatic policy, 201 pre-release testing, 27, 96, 106, 116–119, 136–137, 139–140, 142, 144, 150, 152–153, 162–164, 168–169, 172, 182–183, 187, 190–191, 206– 207, 209–210, 212, 214, 219–222, 225–226, 228–229, 234, 236–238, 247–250 pre-screening, 5, 107, 184, 187, 205–207, 209–210, 212, 214, 219, 221, 228–229, 234, 248 present value, 47–48, 51, 154, 217 Proactionary Principle, 16, 24, 254 prohibition, 119, 122, 134–135, 142, 145–146, 149, 168, 172, 187, 225, 233–334 proportionality, 166–167, 189–190, 206–207, 218, 221, 224, 250 quarantine and stepwise release, 143–145, 147–150, 152, 154–155, 158, 163–164, 168, 172, 187, 189–190, 207, 218–220, 225, 236, 247, 249 Rawls, J., 198 real options, 51–52, 57–59, 72, 108, 173, 176, 178, 180 regime shift, 7–8, 35, 41, 48, 68–70, 72, 74–75, 120, 132, 135, 137, 139, 156–159, 163, 176, 179, 184, 202, 205–206, 208, 214, 222–224, 232–233, 236–237, 247–249 Regional Fisheries Management Councils, 232 remediation, 3–4, 8, 17, 53, 121, 135–136, 138–139, 145, 149, 157, 162, 168–169, 172, 184, 186, 203, 209, 211, 218–219, 221–222, 224–225, 228, 234, 246 resilience, 35, 67–68, 73, 75, 120, 157, 252 resistance, 147, 149, 230 restoration, 57, 141, 157, 168–170, 184, 190–191, 230 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, 9 risk idiosyncratic, 6, 37, 55, 61–63, 83, 173 insurable, 31, 110 manageable, 83, 136, 143, 182, 208, 215, 217, 219, 248 systemic, 6, 31, 37–38, 49, 55, 61, 63, 83, 186, 188 risk assessment, 5, 13, 22, 25–26, 43–46, 53–55, 63, 70, 77–78, 85, 90–91, 127, 150, 163, 168, 170, 186, 188, 195, 208–212, 214–215, 217–218, 223–224, 245 risk dilemma, 5, 139, 159, 161–164, 225, 253 risk–risk trade-off, 15, 17–19, 84–85, 182–183, 190, 217, 236, 248 rivet popper, 8, 40–42, 136, 201 Rumsfeld, D., 34, 64, 83, 104 safe minimum standard of conservation, 173–175, 179–180, 183, 208, 231, 247 safety margin, 27, 134, 181–182 salience, 128 scientific detachment, 131, 202 screening, testing, and surveillance, 219–220, 228, 236, 238, 247, 249 self-insurance, 52 self-organization, 64, 66–67 self-protection, 52 separatrix, 67–68 simulation, 74–75, 80, 132 soft norm, 92–93, 98, 100, 102, 108, 185, 188 St. Petersburg paradox, 60–61, 176 stationarity, 35, 83 Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, 9, 227 Superfund Law, 12 surprises, 34–35, 41, 49–50, 56, 63–64, 69–70, 73, 75, 78, 83, 104, 146, 163, 202, 211, 236, 245, 248 sustainability, weak, 156, 206, 216 thalidomide, 116–120, 129, 137, 140, 150, 153, 226, 243, 250 Third North Sea Conference, 9 threat asymmetric, 27, 39–40, 58, 86, 92, 95, 111–117, 119–122, 145, 152, 161, 168–169, 181, 186–187, 203, 205–207, 233–234, 246 disproportionate, 27, 40–41, 92, 107, 111–112, 114–117, 119–122, 145–146, 152, 155, 161, 163–164, 168–169, 172, 180–183, 186–187, 189, 195, 203–208, 214–215, 217–218, 221, 224–225, 236–237, 239, 244, 246–249 Toxic Substances Control Act, 133, 139 Treaty on European Union, 9 unfounded panic, 88–89, 105, 109, 124, 130, 189 unknown unknowns, 26, 34–35, 50, 56, 64, 68, 83, 103–104, 214, 218