Structure and agent in the scientific diplomacy of climate change : an empirical case study of science-policy interaction in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Contents Acronyms Acknowledgements Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Structure and Agent in Science–Policy Interaction The Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change Structure of the book Generalisations xi 1 1 5 7 10 Chapter 2 Effectiveness in Processes of Science–Policy Interaction 13 13 14 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 Introduction Effectiveness as Realisation of Official Purpose Policy Acceptance as Reflected in a Consensual Problem Diagnosis The Development of a Consensual Problem Diagnosis Towards a Comprehensive Definition of Effectiveness A “Consensual Problem Diagnosis” versus “Consensual Knowledge” In Sum 17 18 20 22 24 Chapter 3 The Science–Policy Nexus 3.1 3.2 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.3 Introduction The Internal Dynamics of Scientific Inquiry The Role of Consensus in Science The Development of Consensus in Science In Sum The Internal Dynamics of Politics 27 27 28 29 34 40 40 ix vi 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 3.3.4 3.3.5 3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.5 Chapter 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3.1 4.3.2 4.4 4.4.1 4.4.2 4.5 4.5.1 4.5.2 4.5.3 4.5.4 4.6 4.6.1 4.6.2 4.7 Chapter 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 The Strategic Value of Information in Distributive Bargaining The Role of Information in Integrative Bargaining The Dilemmas of Mixed Bargaining What Kind of Information is Needed and When? In Sum The Dynamics of Science–Policy Interaction Scientific Knowledge as Legitimisation for Policy Choice “Negotiating” Knowledge In Sum 41 45 49 51 55 56 57 61 63 84 87 87 88 90 90 65 65 66 67 68 69 71 71 73 80 81 83 Designing Institutions for Science–Policy Interaction Introduction Institutions Defined Do Institutions Matter, and Can They be Designed? Social Institutions as Rational, Natural and Open Systems Institutions as Instruments Realising the Instrumental Potential of Institutional Design Institutional Functions Linking Functions to Institutional Devices Leadership Performance Leadership Performance in Negotiations The Role of Scientific Elites Leadership Functions in Processes of Science–Policy Interaction Links Between Institutional Design and Leadership Performance Problem Malignancy and the State of Knowledge Problem Malignancy State of Knowledge In Sum The Development of an International Regime on a Human-Induced Climate Change Introduction The Problem of a Human-Induced Climate Change The Scientific and Political History of the Development of an International Regime on a Human-Induced Climate Change The Effectiveness of the Science–Policy Dialogue In Sum 93 93 93 97 100 103 Chapter 6 Structure: The Institutional Design of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vii 105 105 106 109 109 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3.1 6.3.2 6.3.3 Introduction The Institutional Set-up of the IPCC The Assessment Process of the IPCC The Assessment Process in Principle The Assessment Process in Practice: The Proceedings of WGI The Assessment Process in Practice – In Contrast to the Proceedings of the Old WGIII 6.4 6.4.1 6.4.2 6.4.3 6.4.4 6.5 6.5.1 6.5.2 The Capacity of the Institutional Arrangements of the IPCC to Serve the Four Main Functions Scientific Autonomy Science–Policy Integration Geographic Representativeness Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution Enhanced Effectiveness? Score Effect 112 119 123 123 126 130 132 142 142 145 151 151 152 153 156 161 168 177 182 183 186 188 193 193 196 206 Chapter 7 Agent: Leadership Performance in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 7.1 7.2 7.2.1 7.2.2 7.2.3 7.2.4 7.2.5 7.3 7.3.1 7.3.2 7.4 Chapter 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 Introduction IdentifyingLeadership Performance Actor Capabilities Leadership in the Development of the Knowledge Base Leadership in the Transformation of Scientific Knowledge Boundary-role leadership in the Development of Institutional Arrangements Boundary-role Leadership in the Provision of Communicative Links Institutional Conditions for Leadership Performance A Mandate for Leadership? Leadership Recruitment Enhanced Effectiveness? Causal Relationship: Real or Spurious? Introduction The Political Malignancy of the Problem of a Human Induced Climate Change The State of Knowledge viii 8.3.1 8.3.2 8.3.3 8.4 Chapter 9 References The Scientific Uncertainty of Climate Change 207 210 219 220 The IPCC’s handling of Scientific Uncertainty In Sum Causal Relationship: Real? Structure and Agent in the Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change 225 235 Appendix 249 Index 251