Climate change : turning up the heat

1. Climate change matters -- Turning up the heat -- Why is the present rapid warming happening? -- The importance of delayed climate responses -- Observed impacts -- Trends in human vulnerability -- Projections of future climate change -- Facing the challenge -- Conclusion -- 2. Learning from the past -- Proxy data : clues from the past -- The record of the ice ages -- The causes of past climate change -- Rapid climate changes in the past -- The last 10,000 years -- Conclusions from the past record -- 3. Projecting the future -- The need for, and nature of, foresight -- Predictions, scenarios and projections -- The emissions scenarios used by the IPCC -- Projections of socio-economic futures -- Forecasting the weather -- Why climate projections are different -- The state of climate projections -- 4. Uncertainty is inevitable, but risk is certain -- Despite uncertainties, decisions have to be made -- Uncertainty in climate change projections -- From polarisation to probability and risk -- Estimating risk -- Uncertainty and the role of sceptics -- Application of the 'precautionary principle' -- 5. What climate changes are likely? -- Projected climate changes -- Scenarios in a nutshell. 6. Impacts : why be concerned? -- Climate change impacts, reasons for concern -- Thresholds and abrupt changes -- Risks to unique and threatened systems -- Risks from extreme climate events -- Distribution of impacts -- Aggregate impacts -- Waking the 'sleeping giants' -- Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations -- Growing reasons for concern -- 7. Adaptation : living with climate change -- Adaptation concepts and strategies -- Costs and benefits of adaptation -- Implementation -- Effects of different rates of climatic change -- Equity issues in adaptation -- Enhancing adaptive capacity -- 8. Mitigation : limiting climate change -- Why mitigation is necessary -- How much mitigation is needed? -- Where we are now -- How difficult is mitigation? -- The looming peak in oil production -- Mitigation options -- Increased energy efficiency -- Fuel substitution -- Nuclear power -- Hydropower -- Solar energy -- Wind power -- Biomass energy -- Tidal, wave and geothermal energy -- The hydrogen economy -- Carbon capture and sequestration -- Land-based carbon sinks -- Changes in infrastructure and behaviour -- Technological innovation : attitude is vital -- The road to effective mitigation. 9. Climate change in context -- Surface air pollution and climate change -- Stratospheric ozone depletion -- Biodiversity, agriculture and forestry -- Land degradation and desertification -- Freshwater -- Population growth -- Synergies and trade-offs -- Integration, sustainable development and equity -- 10. The politics of greenhouse -- Is the science credible? -- What about the uncertainty? -- How realistic are the scenarios? -- Choosing global and local emissions targets -- How urgently do we need to act? -- How much will reducing emissions cost? -- Meeting targets most efficiently -- International equity : what is fair? -- The importance of equity within countries -- Equity between generations -- The role of governments and NGOs -- What role should business take? -- The role of state and local governments -- So what are the politics of greenhouse? -- 11. International concern and national interests -- A brief history -- The Kyoto Protocol -- National interests and climate change -- African nations -- Australia and New Zealand -- China -- European Union -- India, Pakistan and Bangladesh -- Latin America -- The Russian Federation -- Small island states -- United States of America -- The common interest in global solutions -- 12. Accepting the challenge -- Looking beyond the Kyoto Protocol -- Addressing the key issues -- 13. Further information -- Introduction -- Bibliography/reading list -- Websites.