برق رسانی: رابطه بین رفتار مصرف کننده و سیاست عمومی Electrification: The nexus between consumer behavior and public policy

Electrification is the choice of consumers to use electricity as the source of energy for satisfying their energy-service demands. It involves the decision of energy consumers to rely on electricity rather than natural gas and other fossil fuels for specific end-use applications. These decisions can include conversion from natural gas to electricity in an existing home or installation of electric technology in a new home. In each instance, the consumer must decide on what appliance or energyusing technology to purchase. End uses (i.e., energy services) for which electrification is feasible include transportation, space heating and cooling, water heating, agricultural pumping, cooking, and clothes drying. A small number of end uses, for example, account for 85% of the direct fossil fuel use in New York and New England: space and water heat in residential and commercial buildings; industrial process heat and steam; and light and medium/heavy duty on-road vehicles.1 All of these end uses to varying degrees are candidates for electrification. For the U.S., a little less than 50% of households have electric water heating, meaning that potentially the other half can convert to electricity.2 About 25% of residential floor space in the U.S. has electricity as the primary heat source, mostly in the Southern states and the Pacific Northwest.3 In other locations, natural gas is the predominant source of energy for both space and water heating. The major drivers for the choice of a specific energy source in the U.S.are relative prices, climate, environmental regulation (e.g., removing coal for home use), and energy-source availability. Rural areas use little natural gas because of the unavailability of gas-distribution lines. This situation stems from the cost-ineffectiveness of extending lines to these areas. Natural gas is the energy choice in most areas where households have access to a gas-distribution main. Table 1 shows the breakdown of home energy consumption by end use. Water and space heating together account for almost 60% of total energy consumption. These end uses are prime candidates for conversion to electricity, especially from natural gas. As noted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), electrification has potentially diverse benefits: Electrification – customers’ shift from direct combustion of fossil fuels to electricity – has emerged as a valuable strategy for not only boosting efficiency, but also for reducing emissions at minimum cost. While acknowledging those circumstances in which it remains more efficient or less expensive to burn fossil fuels directly, there is a growing array of energy uses for which electricity is the best option – especially where pollution must be cut nearly to zero, such as in densely populated cities.