نابرابری درآمد، سهام، بدهی خانوار و نرخ بهره: شواهد از یک قرن داده Income inequality, equities, household debt, and interest rates: Evidence from a century of data

1. Introduction On October 17th, 2014, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen spent significant time discussing income inequality in the United States at a Boston Federal Reserve Conference on Economic Opportunity and Inequality. She stated: ‘‘. . .. . .The extent of and continuing increase in inequality in the United States greatly concern me. The past several decades have seen the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality following the Great Depression. By some estimates, income and wealth inequality are near their highest levels in the past hundred years, much higher than the average during that time span and probably higher than for much of American history before then. It is no secret that the past few decades of widening inequality can be summed up as significant income and wealth gains for those at the very top and stagnant living standards for the majority. I think it is appropriate to ask whether this trend is compatible with values rooted in our nation’s history, among them the high value Americans have traditionally placed on equality of opportunity.”2 Federal Reserve officials have often discussed income inequality in speeches, however, there is not a consensus regarding the degree to which income inequality should be a concern for the Federal Reserve. Chairman Alan Greenspan in 1998 stated: ‘‘. . .. . ..We need to ask, for example, whether we should be concerned with the degree of income inequality if all groups are experiencing relatively rapid gains in their real incomes, though those rates of gain may differ. And, we cannot ignore what is happening to the level of average income while looking at trends in the distribution. In this regard, our goal as central bankers should be clear: we must pursue monetary conditions in which stable prices contribute to maximizing sustainable long-run growth. Historically, the primary channel that the central bank could redistribute wealth was thought to be the inflation rate. Inflation that was higher than the expected inflation rate redistributed wealth from creditors to debtors. However, given that part of the Federal Reserve’s mandate is a low unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve has often lowered interest rates in attempts to stimulate the economy. As such, while lowering interest rates may stimulate the economy, it is not clear that all income groups experience equal growth in incomes because of the policy stimulus. This paper explores whether there is a debt and equity channel through which changes in interest rates may affect income inequality through either increased household debt or by increasing the value of financial assets that are owned primarily by high income families.