تفاوت های گونه شناسی مزارع در سرمایه گذاری هنگفت از سال 1996 تا سال 2013 Differences across farm typologies in capital investment during 1996-2013

Introduction The period from 2000 to 2014 saw a rapid growth in farm capital investment. Total capital expenditures rose from $16.8 billion to $46.5 billion between 1996 and 2014 (Economic Research Service (ERS), n.d.b). This growth in capital expenditures resulted in 79 percent, or $107 billion, increase in the market value of the inventory of US farm equipment between 2002 and 2012 (Koenig, 2016). This rapid expansion of investment and growth of the farm capital stock coincided with rising commodity prices and farm incomes, increases in tax depreciation expense limits, falling loan interest rates, and strengthening of farm equity levels. This paper seeks to understand the link between the growth of farm capital investment and related changes in farm economic and macroeconomic variables during this time period. It also seeks to determine differences across farms in responses to changes in variables impacting farm capital investment across farm typologies, a classification system which groups farms based on gross cash income levels and primary operator occupation. First, the definition of farm capital investment and the farm typology categories utilized in this study are introduced. Next, a dynamic panel data regression model is developed to estimate the overall impact of key variables on crop and livestock farm capital investment during this time period. This model is estimated for crop and livestock farms as a whole and within farm typologies. Finally, these results are used to motivate a discussion of the importance of and impact these differences in investment responsiveness by typology may have on future farm capital investment given changes in future prices and cash flows, tax policy, and farm debt levels. One unique aspect of this study is the use of Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data to study farm capital investment. ARMS is an annual survey of farms within 48 US states. The survey covers a wide range of farms producing different commodities, located in different regions, and of different economic and physical size. The majority of farm capital investment studies have utilized either aggregate time series data or farm management association data. The former does not allow us to explore the impact of individual farm level data, such as cash flows or other farm specific characteristics on investment. The latter, while correcting for this, covers only a small subset of US agricultural producers. Farms in these studies will exhibit less variety in production type and income levels compared to the US farm population as a whole[1].