ادغام بررسی ریسک ملی در یک سیستم مدیریت ریسک حوادث Integrating a national risk assessment into a disaster risk management system: Process and practice

1. Introduction Globalization has greatly increased interdependencies in modern society, and seemingly minor events can easily spread and cascade into a full-blown crisis [1,2]. Risks, ranging from everyday occurrences to systemic failure, can trigger severe losses. An all-hazards approach is needed to assess them, while collective, whole-of-society efforts are needed to address them [2–4]. This new risk landscape has generated concerns about governments’ disaster risk management (DRM) capabilities in dealing with situations characterized by complexity, ambiguity and uncertainty. A second problem is the need to coordinate different administrative levels, cross-sectoral stakeholders, and transboundary organizations. Finally, a third issue concerns the reduced capacities of central government due to decentralization and/ or privatization [2,5,6]. Given these conditions, improving a country’s DRM is no easy task. Historically, DRM activities in many countries have focused on the post-emergency response. However, recent progress in science, technology, and information management means that DRM bodies can conduct comprehensive, pre-emergency assessments. These evaluations help to understand potential disaster risks, how they affect vulnerable human beings, and society’s ability to handle hazards and threats [6]. Consequently, the focus of DRM activities has shifted from the response phase, to preparedness and prevention. According to the European Commission’s Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Factsheet [7], it’s estimated that for every €1 invested in disaster risk prevention, €4–7 is saved in disaster response. Therefore, governments have been encouraged to invest more in prevention. Many countries now carry out a national risk assessment (NRA). The aim is to identify the threats and hazards that could affect a country, and assess their likelihood and impacts from a national perspective [6]. As it is carried out before a negative event happens, the aim is to improve prevention policies and mitigation programs by directing limited resources, thereby reducing a nation’s exposure and vulnerability. Often carried out in conjunction with a capability assessment (which seeks to determine if a county is able to handle a certain emergency), the NRA helps to understand the potential risks a country faces, and plays an important part in developing its capacity to prevent and respond to disaster risks at all levels [6].