مدل مبتنی بر سناریو برای ارزیابی اثربخشی مدیریت اضطراری زلزله A scenario-based model for earthquake emergency management effectiveness evaluation

1. Introduction Among natural disasters, earthquakes represent one of the most unpredictable, lethal and devastating phenomena from an economic and social standpoint. Besides the collapse of a large number of buildings and mass damage to critical lifeline engineering infrastructure, an earthquake usually also triggers a series of secondary derivative disasters such as landslides, fires, floods, plague, and social unrest. There is a strong possibility that it will cause serious casualties, huge economic losses and other catastrophic consequences. Since earthquakes disaster is a great threat to human lives, economic development and social system, immense effort has been made to control risks and mitigate losses. Most of the studies have been limited to single earthquakes disaster. But the emergency strategies for single disaster may be less effective when there are other unexpected secondary events (Kumasaki et al., 2016). For the reliable effective emergency management of earthquakes, secondary disasters should be taken into account in management strategies. However, the occurrence of each specific secondary event depends on the local geological conditions, economic development, cultural identity, political factors and so on. The secondary disasters chain is a complex system which is difficult to predict accurately. The scenario method, aimed at developing alternative visions of the future, is well known as an approach to studying situations that can lead to vital changes and in which it is difficult to create explicit relationships among events. Moreover, the scenario model can be integrated with other predictive models which enable diverse flexible approaches to face uncertain issues (Bañuls et al., 2013; Carpenter et al., 2006; De Lattre-Gasquet, 2006; Yang et al., 2017). It can help decision makers analyze a variety of the possible future trends, identify the key factors and make the best decisions. Several researchers from different domains of knowledge have already contributed different approaches to scenario-generation techniques. In this paper, a scenariobased model is proposed to estimate possible evolutions of earthquakes. This model aims to evaluate earthquake emergency management effectiveness.