پیش بینی سرمایه گذاری و ظرفیت اضافی در زیرساخت های فرودگاه هند: تجزیه و تحلیل پس از خصوصی سازی و پس  از دوره تنظیم مقررات  Forecasting investment and capacity addition in Indian airport infrastructure: Analysis from post-privatization  and post-economic regulation era

1. Introduction With the advent of economic liberalization during 1991 there has been increase in the economic activities. Additionally with the resultant economic boom, disposable income of individuals has touched new heights. The real per capita GDP of India, which was growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% during 1992e2001, started growing at an accelerated CAGR of over 6% during 2014e2015. Even during the recent global meltdown, India’s economy was least affected, and in any case it recovered faster than the recovery of any other economy, thus, explaining the strong economic fundamentals of Indian economy. The recent trend in economic growth reveals that Indian economy is expected to be on a high growth trajectory during the next 20 years and Indian Aviation Sector will also grow at faster pace in tandem with the economy. Thus, along with increase in growth, India would need to develop its’ aviation infrastructure in order to accommodate the projected demand. Before economic liberalization and introduction of open sky policy in 1991, aviation was traditionally viewed as an elite activity. The two government airlines i.e., Air India and Indian Airlines were the only Indian carriers. With the advent of open sky policy, private airlines entered into the Indian sky, first as air taxi operators and then as scheduled operators. Indian aviation sector witnessed an unprecedented change and growth after 2003. During this period, the importance of aviation, for the development of business, trade and tourism was recognized, and the industry saw dramatic reforms across the aviation value chain.  In 2003, there were just three private carriers viz., Jet Airways, Air Sahara and Air Deccan-all operating full service models. The private carriers in those days were limited to operating domestic routes only. In 2015, there are six private carriers viz., Jet Airways, Kingfisher, Spice Jet, Indigo, Vistara and Go Air. These are operating  under nine brand names, and three of them are permitted to operate on international routes.