Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security : threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

Forewords Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations V Konrad Osterwalder, Rector, United Nations University and Under-Secretary-General of the United Nation VII Jean-François Bureau, NATO Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy Chairman, Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Committee IX Joy Ogwu, Permanent Representative of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to the United Nations in New York XI HRH Prince El Hassan bin Talal, The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan XIII Dedications XV Acknowledgements XXVII Permissions and Credits XXXI Prefaces 1 The Anthropocene: Geology by Mankind 3 Paul Crutzen, Nobel Laureate for Chemistry Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Department Atmospheric Chemistry Connecting Inconvenient Truths: Urgency of Nuclear Disarmament in a World of Pressing Problems 5 Amb. Jayantha Dhanapala, Former UN Under-Secretary General for Disarmament, President, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs Living in and Coping with World Risk Society 11 Ulrich Beck Population Prospects and the Challenges of Sustainability 17 Hania Zlotnik Towards a Great Land-Use Transformation? 23 Christoph Müller, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Veronika Huber, Alexander Popp, Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins, Michael Krause and Hans Joachim SchellnhuberPart I Introduction: Concepts of Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks 29 1 Introduction: Coping with Global Environmental Change in the Anthropocene 31 Hans Günter Brauch and عrsula Oswald Spring 2 Concepts of Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks 61 Hans Günter Brauch 3 Disaster Risk and Vulnerability: Concepts and Measurement of Human and Environmental Insecurity 107 Omar D. Cardona 4 Economic Vulnerability and Economic Security 123 Czeslaw Mesjasz 5 Debt Relief, Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Low-Income Countries 157 Lidia Mesjasz Part II Securitization of Global Environmental Change 177 6 Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in the Evolution and Implementation of the European Security Strategy 179 Alyson J.K. Bailes 7 NATO’s Traditional Security Problems 191 Pلl Dunay 8 European Responses to Security Threats in the Mediterranean in the Early 21st Century 199 Eduard Soler i Lecha 9 Inside/Outside: Turkey’s Security Dilemmas and Priorities in the Early 21st Century 207 Mustafa Aydin and Asli Toksabay Esen 10 Promoting Democracy as a Security Goal. The ‘inward-outward’ Paradox of the EU’s Foreign Policy 219 Omar Serrano 11 Language Games on Security in Finland: Towards Changing Concepts of the State and National Survival 235 Vilho Harle and Sami Moisio 12 Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in US National Security Documents (1990–2010) 249 Hans Günter Brauch 13 Changes in the Perception of Military Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in Russia (1991-2009) 275 Alexander Sergunin 14 Russian Security Policy in the 21st Century Based on the Experiences of Its First Decade 291 Pلl Dunay15 Non-Traditional Security and the New Concept of Security of China 307 Zhongqin Zhao 16 Perceptions of Hard Security Issues in the Arab World 313 Gamal M. Selim 17 Arab Perceptions of Soft Security Issues 327 Mohammad El-Sayed Selim 18 Military Challenges and Threats in West Africa 339 Kwesi Aning and Andrews Atta-Asamoah 19 Weak States and Security Threats in West Africa 353 John Emeka Akude Part III Economic, Social, Environmental Security and Human Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in the Near East, North and Sub-Sahara Africa and in Asia 369 20 Environmental Challenges and Risks in North Africa 371 Béchir Chourou 21 Water Degradation as a Human Security Challenge in Jordan 395 Bassam Ossama Hayek and Nisreen Daifallah Al Hmoud 22 Water Scarcity and Degradation in Palestine as Challenges, Vulnerabilities, and Risks for Environmental Security 409 Marwan Haddad 23 Social, Environmental and Security Impacts of Climate Change on the Eastern Mediterranean 421 Hilmi S. Salem 24 Progressive Development of the Water Resources of Israel and Palestine to Mitigate the Negative Impact of Global Warming 447 Arie S. Issar 25 Jerusalem: Where To? In Search for Hidden Opportunities 459 Mohammed S. Dajani Daoudi and Ashraf M. Dajani 26 Global Climate Change Impacts for the Mediterranean in the 21st Century: Challenges for Human and Environmental Security 485 Hans Günter Brauch 27 Global Environmental Change and Conflict Potential in Central Asia 525 Jenniver Sehring and Ernst Giese 28 Impact of Environmental Change on Stability and Conflict Potentials in China 535 Thomas Heberer and Anja D. Senzxx Contents Part IV Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks for Urban Centres in Hazards and Disasters 547 29 The Vulnerability of Cities to Disasters and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework 549 Mark Pelling 30 Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Case Study on Landslide Risks in La Paz 559 Fabien Nathan 31 Revealing the Impact of Small Disasters to the Economic and Social Development 575 Mabel C. Marulanda, Omar D. Cardona and Alex H. Barbat 32 Climate Change, Natural Hazards and Coastal Ecosystems in Latin-America: A Framework for Analysis 585 Carmen Lacambra and Kaveh Zahedi 33 Flood Loss Redistribution in a Third World Megacity: The Case of Mumbai 603 Monalisa Chatterjee 34 Coping with Water- and Wastewater-related Risks in Megacity Delhi 613 Reena Singh 35 Politics of Displacement and Vulnerability 625 Nanda Kishor 36 Linking Oriental and Western Thinking to Mitigate Flood Risk 637 Xiaomeng Shen 37 Preparation for an Earthquake in the Megacity Istanbul 647 S‎d‎ka Tekeli Ye‏il 38 Risk Management Strategies for the Predicted Earthquake Hazard in Istanbul 655 Ebru A. Gencer 39 Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Hazards in Nigeria 669 Adeniyi Sulaiman Gbadegesin, Felix Bayode Olorunfemi and Usman Adebimpe Raheem Part V Coping with Global Environmental Change: Climate Change, Soil and Desertification, Water Management, Food and Health 689 40 Quantifying Global Environmental Change Impacts: Methods, Criteria and Definitions for Compiling Data on Hydro-meteorological Disasters 693 Debarati Guha-Sapir and Femke Vos Section A: Climate Change 41 Stormy Weather: International Security in the Shadow of Climate Change 719 Steffen Bauer42 Security Risks of Climate Change: Vulnerabilities, Threats, Conflicts and Strategies 735 Jürgen Scheffran 43 New Threats? Risk and Securitization Theory on Climate Change and Water 757 Anders Jنgerskog 44 Dealing With Uncertainties in Climate Change Impacts Assessments: A Case Study on the Nile Basin 765 Carlo Buontempo, Jens Kristian Lّrup, Michael Sanderson, Michael Butts, Erika Palin, Rachel McCarthy, Richard Jones, Richard Betts and Mamdouh Antar 45 Mapping Areas Affected by Sea-Level Rise due to Climate Change in the Nile Delta Until 2100 773 Mohamed El Raey 46 Vulnerability of Tropical Montane Rain Forest Ecosystems due to Climate Change 789 Hans Juergen Boehmer Section B: Soil and Desertification 47 Securitizing Land Degradation and Desertification: A Proactive Soil Security Concept 803 Hans Günter Brauch and عrsula Oswald Spring 48 Alternative Livelihoods for Attaining Sustainability and Security in Drylands 835 Uriel N. Safriel 49 Societal Vulnerability to Desertification and Policy Response Options 853 Zafar Adeel 50 Desertification Process in Egypt 863 Ismail Abd El Galil Hussein 51 Impacts of Drought on Agriculture in Northern Mexico 875 Tulio Arredondo Moreno and Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald 52 Traditional Knowledge in Coping with Desertification 893 Pietro Laureano 53 Prodromes of Desertification in the Oasis of Tafilalet (Morocco) and Specific Local Solutions 901 Monique Mainguet, Frédéric Dumay, Lahcen Kabiri and Boualem Rémini 54 Agriculture in Drylands: Experience in Almeria 921 Andrés Miguel Garcیa Lorca 55 Land-use Changes, Desertification, and Climate Change Impacts in South-eastern Spain 935 Jorge Garcیa Gَmez, Francisco Lَpez-Bermْdez and Juan Manuel Quiٌonero Rubio56 Reconsidering Integrated Water Resources Management: Promoting Economic Growth and Tackling Environmental Stress 947 Jakob Granit 57 Coping with Population Growth, Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Growing Food Demand in China in the 21st Century 957 Zhanyi Gao and Yaqiong Hu 58 Ensuring Water Security in Rural Areas of Bangladesh under Climate Change and Non-climatic Drivers of Change 969 Mohammed Rahman Zillur and Kuntala Lahiri-Dutt 59 Applying Bottom-up Participatory Strategies and Traditional Methods of Water Harvesting in the Thar Desert, Rajasthan 983 Kanupriya Harish and Mathews Mullackal 60 Coping with Water Scarcity in the Sahel: Assessing Groundwater Resources in the Western Sahel 997 Abdelkader Dodo, Mohamedou Ould Baba Sy and Jihed Ghannem Section D: Coping with Food Security Issues 61 Global Threats, Global Changes and Connected Communities in the Global Agrofood System 1005 John Grin and Esther Marijnen 62 Genetically Modified Organisms: A Threat for Food Security and Risk for Food Sovereignty and Survival 1019 عrsula Oswald Spring 63 Natural Disasters and Major Challenges towards Achieving Food Security in the Sahel: The Experience of CILSS 1043 Issa Martin Bikienga 64 Responding to Climate Variability and Change: Opportunities and Challenges for Governance 1055 Sreeja Nair 65 Coping with Climate Change Impacts on Coffee and Maize for Peasants in Mexico 1067 Cecilia Conde Section E: Coping with Health Security Issues 66 The Impact of AIDS on Women’s Social Life in a Mexican Rural Community 1081 Fلtima Flores and Wolfgang Wagner 67 Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Heat Stress in Urban Areas 1091 Tanja Wolf, Glenn McGregor and Anna Paldy68 Regulation and Coupling of Society and Nature in the Context of Natural Hazards 1103 Jِrn Birkmann 69 Differentials in Impacts and Recovery in the Aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Local Examples at Different Scales in Sri Lanka 1129 Katharina Marre and Fabrice Renaud 70 Risks in Central America: Bringing Them Under Control 1147 Juan Carlos Villagrلn de Leَn 71 Economics and Social Vulnerability: Dynamics of Entitlement and Access 1159 Koko Warner 72 Social Vulnerability, Discrimination, and Resilience-building in Disaster Risk Reduction 1169 عrsula Oswald Spring Part VII Coping with Global Environmental Change: Scientific, International, Regional and National Political Strategies, Policies and Measures 1189 Section A: Scientific Research Goals and Strategies for Coping with Global Environmental Change 73 Coping with Global Environmental Change: Need for an Interdisciplinary and Integrated Approach 1193 G.A. McBean 74 Research Agenda and Policy Input of the Earth System Science Partnership for Coping with Global Environmental Change 1205 Rik Leemans, Martin Rice, Ann Henderson-Sellers and Kevin Noone 75 The International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change – Taking Stock and Moving Forward 1221 Louise von Falkenhayn, Andreas Rechkemmer and Oran R. Young 76 DIVERSITAS: Biodiversity Science Integrating Research and Policy for Human Well-Being 1235 Bruno A. Walther, Anne Larigauderie and Michel Loreau 77 The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme’s (IGBP) Scientific Research Agenda for Coping with Global Environmental Change 1249 Kevin J. Noone, Carlos Nobre and Sybil Seitzinger 78 Climate Information for Coping with Environmental Change: Contributions of the World Climate Research Programme 1257 John A. Church, Ghassem R. Asrar, Antonio J. Busalacchi and Carolin E. Arndt79 Key IPCC Conclusions on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations 1273 Martin Parry, Osvaldo Canziani, Jean Palutikof and Clair Hanson 80 Options for Mitigating Climate Change Results of Working Group III of the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC 1283 Peter Bosch and Bert Metz 81 Global Climate Change, Natural Hazards, and the Environment: an Overview of UNESCO’s Activities 1293 Walter Erdelen and Badaoui Rouhban 82 Climate Change and Development: UNDP’s Approach to Helping Countries Build a New Paradigm 1303 Veerle Vandeweerd, Yannick Glemarec and Vivienne Caballero Section C: Regional Strategies, Policies and Measures for Coping with Climate Change 83 EU Strategies for Climate Change Policy Beyond 2012 1319 Christian Egenhofer, Arno Behrens and Anton Georgiev 84 Coping with Climate Change in East Asia: Vulnerabilities and Responsibilities 1333 Paul G. Harris 85 Strategies for Coping with Climate Change in Latin America: Perspective beyond 2012 1341 Ricardo Zapata-Martی 86 Politics of Equity and Justice in Climate Change Negotiations in North-South Relations 1355 Ariel Macaspac Penetrante Section D: National Strategies, Policies and Measures for Coping with Climate Change 87 Climate Change: Long-Term Security Implications for China and the International Community 1367 Yu Hongyuan and Paul J. Smith 88 Japanese Climate Change Policy: Moving Beyond the Kyoto Process 1381 Hiroshi Ohta 89 Implications of Equity Considerations and Emission Reduction Targets: Lessons from the Case of Japan’s Mid-Term Target 1393 Norichika Kanie, Hiromi Nishimoto, Yasuaki Hijioka and Yasuko Kameyama90 Land-use and Flood Risk Changes in Coastal Areas of South-eastern Spain 1403 Juan M. Quiٌonero-Rubio, Francisco Lَpez-Bermْdez, Francisco Alonso-Sarrیa and Francisco J. Gomariz-Castillo 91 Monitoring Conflict Risk: The Contribution of Globally Used Indicator Systems 1415 Jochen Jesinghaus Part IX Towards an Improved Early Warning of Conflicts and Hazards 1427 92 Networking Disaster and Conflict Early Warning in Response to Climate Change 1429 Patrick Meier 93 Vulnerability Assessment in Sri Lanka in the Context of Tsunami Early Warning 1441 Juan Carlos Villagrلn de Leَn Part X Summary and Conclusions 1451 94 Political Geoecology for the Anthropocene 1453 Hans Günter Brauch, Simon Dalby and عrsula Oswald Spring 95 Coping with Global Environmental Change – Sustainability Revolution and Sustainable Peace 1487 عrsula Oswald Spring and Hans Günter Brauch Abbreviations 1505 Bibliography 1521 Biographies of Contributors 1711 Index 1765