مطالعه میزان تقاضای توریسم بین المللی در خاورمیانه با مدل پنل اطلاعاتی Study of international tourism demand in Middle East by panel data model

ntroduction: Tourism as a developing industry has gained momentum in many countries in recent decades such that the total number of tourists reached to 436million people in 1990 and with 137% growth to 1035 million in 2012, which has brought 1075 billion dollars income for different countries in 2012. It is estimated that international tourists number increase by 1.8 billion people in 2030 with average growth of 3.3% per year. (UNWTO, 2013) Tourism industry has obtained an outstanding position in different countries and different regions of the world by its positive impact upon income increase, job opportunities, balance of foreign trade as well as cultural influences that its development lead to in societies. This important economic sector has also an undeniable effect on investment in various infrastructural areas of the country. As the industry develops, the demand for development and improvement of tourism infrastructures, which are mainly considered as state infrastructures, increase and this in return, leads to motivation and further encouragement in infrastructural investment. According to another point of view, tourism is viewed as an activity which demands product and service from many economic sectors. As a result, it enjoys a high market power in accumulating product and service demand of different economic sectors. According to the evidences and facts, tourism plays an important role in gross domestic product of many countries. Thus, its development and share in relation to the whole economy is deemed very important by policy makers and planners. Middle East region has played main role in attracting international tourists by enjoying different colorful climates in recent years such that number of tourists between 1990 till 2012 in Middle East region has increased from 9.6 million people to about 52 million which means 442 percent increase. Tourism market share has also increased from 2.2percent in 1990 to 5 percent in 2012. It is estimated that it claims for most growth rate in comparison with other regions in terms of tourist attraction. (2013 UNWTO) Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to study influential factors on travel and tourism demand in Middle East region as a highly attractive zone by employing inter-state data.