نقش آنالیز تکنولوژی آینده گرا در دولت الکترونیکی: یک بررسی اصولی The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review

Introduction The application of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) has been radically transforming many social and economic activities, including those of the public sector. Over the last three decades, many governments worldwide have implemented e-Government with the belief that it can improve efficiency, cost effectiveness, and transparency between citizens and public agencies and authorities [1–4]. Such e-Government initiatives are usually undertaken at the national policy-making level. They necessarily require many technological and innovation decisions and capabilities to support their planning, design and implementation. Multiple stakeholders must contribute time, effort, and financial cost; coordination is critical [5, 6]. Despite high hopes, and much promotion by consultancies and ICT companies, it is well-established that many ICT public projects are unsuccessful [7, 8]. Heeks & Stanforth [9] reported that the rate of failure of ICT public projects is close to 60%. This is not just a matter of delays, cost overruns, and the like: systems are quite often rejected by their intended users as not fit for purpose. Researchers have attributed these problems to several factors, including failure to take end-user requirements into sufficient account – and to lack of vision and strategy [7, 10]. Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) is an umbrella concept proposed in 2004 by the Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group [11] to represent “any systematic process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. In this sense, Technology Future Analysis encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry.” We shall adopt this terminology here, so as to avoid debate about whether individual studies do or do not represent one or other type of Foresight, Technology Assessment, Strategic Prospective, or other futures-oriented approach. There is also widespread agreement that FTA can be useful in the design of public policies for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) [12]. In addition to policies for research and development (R&D), technical training, etc., policies often involve STI in public services such as health and environmental management. A focus on government processes themselves is rather less common – indeed, Foresight Programmes that claim to cover the greater part of the economy typically neglect activities like public administration (despite the high levels of employment in such spheres). Since e-Government is a matter of public policy concerning technological innovation, and FTA is employed in the design of STI policies, the question arises of how FTA has been used in e-Government programmes. The present study draws on a bibliographic review that analysed when, how, for what, and with whom e-Government initiatives have used FTA. This paper is structured as follows: the second and third sections outline the context of eGovernment and FTA, respectively. The fourth section outlines the research method and the fifth section presents and discusses the research results. Finally, the sixth section provides some conclusions and offers suggestions for further studies.